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Hugh's Views
Articles about issues that I find interesting; there's no particulary rhyme or reason as to why a topic is covered here. If something does fit neatly into another category, it will likely end up here.
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Warning: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone. in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08az/b29/ipw.wellbeyo/public_html/libraries/joomla/utilities/date.php on line 247
Warning: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone. in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08az/b29/ipw.wellbeyo/public_html/libraries/joomla/utilities/date.php on line 251
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Friday, 12 September 2008 12:21 |
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I have been waiting for the following topic to be raised somewhere in the media, perhaps it has and I missed it, but since Freddie and Fannie have been put into conservatorship by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, I think and argument can be raised that the national debt has grown substantially. The two combined guarantee about $5 to $6 trillion in loans. The current debt ceiling, not counting Freddie and Fannie, is $10.6 trillion. It's probably not a big deal, since this new debt is backed, for the most part, by pretty sound assets. There's only a small portion of the Freddie/Fannie portfolio that is problematic. Nonetheless, the debt has grown. I suspect that it's something that will inevitably increase the cost of borrowing for the US government. |
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Warning: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone. in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08az/b29/ipw.wellbeyo/public_html/libraries/joomla/utilities/date.php on line 251
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Thursday, 11 September 2008 06:00 |
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On the face of it, a coffee shop selling actual coffee seems like a no brainer, but recently, Starbucks seems [NASDAQ:SBUX] to have abandoned that practice. The company has floundered lately; for the past twelve months, the stock has fallen from about $28 a share to around $15: a lot way from its long-time high of $40 in late 2006. The value of the stock is now back where it was over five years ago. The company appears to have fundamental operational issues. While revenues continue to grow, the rate of growth is slowing. Earnings growth is declining too. In fact, for the quarter that ended on June 29, the company posted a loss. |
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Wednesday, 10 September 2008 21:42 |
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It looks like I am not the only one with concerns about Washington Mutual [NYSE:WM]. S&P lowered the outlook on the company--maybe it needs to dig into the tranches of the bank's CDOs, the risk doesn't seem to be calculated appropriately given the fault rate of the loans covered in the obligations. I mentioned the credit default swaps yesterday; they've jumped by another 400 basis points. If WaMu needs to raise cash, it's going to find it very challenging. Today the shares dropped by 30% to $2.32. |
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Wednesday, 10 September 2008 20:34 |
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It looks like I am not the only one with concerns about Washington Mutual. S&P lowered the outlook on the company--maybe it needs to dig into the tranches of the bank's CDOs, the risk doesn't seem to be calculated appropriately given the fault rate of the loans covered in the obligations. I mentioned the credit default swaps yesterday; they've jumped by another 400 basis points. If WaMu needs to raise cash, it's going to find it very challenging. Today the shares dropped by 30% to $2.32. In my opinion, WaMu's days are number and collapse is imminent. |
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Wednesday, 10 September 2008 09:04 |
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The credit markets have reacted to the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; they're viewing "conservatorship" as the equivalent of bankruptcy. It's not, but in the credit default swap markets, that's how it's viewed. The move by the government is viewed as a 'credit event,' the topic I discussed yesterday in the context of WaMu. |
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Wednesday, 10 September 2008 08:04 |
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The credit markets have reacted to the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; they're viewing "conservatorship" as the equivalent of bankruptcy. It's not, but in the credit default markets, that's how it's viewed. The move by the government is viewed as a 'credit event,' the topic I discussed yesterday in the context of WaMu. |
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Written by Hugh McManus
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Tuesday, 09 September 2008 09:04 |
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The money is safe up to a certain limit. For example, if you have up to $100,000 in cash, you're fine. Most money market funds seem to be safe too. You can always contact the bank to find out if a money market fund is FDIC insured. |
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Tuesday, 09 September 2008 00:48 |
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The question is, what happens when the FDIC seizes a bank. There are multiple processes, but when the FDIC moves in on a bank, it becomes the new owner--unless it has already found an other acquirer. There have been two or three more bank seizures in the past two weeks and in each case, the FDIC (other agencies were involved too) had another bank ready to buy the assets, so the company opened the following Monday as branches of a new bank. |
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Warning: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone. in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08az/b29/ipw.wellbeyo/public_html/libraries/joomla/utilities/date.php on line 247
Warning: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone. in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08az/b29/ipw.wellbeyo/public_html/libraries/joomla/utilities/date.php on line 251
Warning: strftime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone. in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08az/b29/ipw.wellbeyo/public_html/libraries/joomla/utilities/date.php on line 252
Sunday, 07 September 2008 21:48 |
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I received an interesting alert from the Wall Street Journal when I got back from dinner this evening. It seems that Washington Mutual [NYSE:WM] has decided to oust its CEO, Kerry Killinger. Here's the message I received: Kerry Killinger, who helped build Washington Mutual into the nation's largest thrift and then presided over its rapid decline, is being ousted as chief executive, making him the latest casualty of the mortgage crisis. Succeeding Killinger will be Alan Fishman, currently chairman of New York commercial mortgage broker Meridian Capital. You can read the WSJ by following this link. The timing is interesting, because I just posted my thoughts on WaMu at a number of boards including an article on Well Beyond the Pale. For me, at least, iit's clear that Washington Mutual is at a high risk of being seized by the FDIC. |
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