| Musings about Pfizer, maybe there's a way to extend Lipitor |
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| News - Hugh's Views | |||
| Written by Hugh McManus | |||
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Pfizer [NYSE:PFE] is looking good right now--it looked even better a few weeks ago when the stock was cheaper; however, I don't believe that the company has time to bolster its pipeline through acquisition in time for the loss of Lipitor. Lipitor (Atorvastatin) represents about $11 billion to Pfizer; it's an important drug. Pfizer will face generic competition with other brands of Atorvastatin in 2012. In the emerging pharma sector, there are some remarkable values out there: there are many drugs in Phase II and late Phase III with companies that are not flush with cash. Many of these drugs are, unfortunately, already partnered, but there are still many opportunities for PFE. I expect the company to either continue merging into these smaller companies or to license pipeline through other deals. I am concerned that there won't be time to replace the loss in revenues from Lipitor in a few years; however, I believe that, for the most part, this loss in revenue is already priced into the stock.I'll throw one more suggestion into the mix. It's a little unconventional, but could make for an interesting point of discussion. If I were the CEO of Pfizer, I'd look into the concept of lobbying the FDA to have Lipitor go OTC when it comes off patent. Now, I recognize that there are some serious adverse events associated with Lipitor--they need to be taken seriously. I also think that, from a public health perspective, there is a valid argument to be made to having statins more readily available without a prescription. To some extent appropriate packaging that would limit availability through fewer tablets with a lower dose could mitigate problems with Lipitor, but certainly wouldn't entirely eliminate the risks entirely. It might help shift the risk/reward ratio in favor of marketing the drug over-the-counter without a prescription. I throw this idea out because, from a marketing perspective, Pfizer would be in a much stronger position if it competed with prospective sellers of Atorvastatin using its Lipitor brand name. It obviously will still do it when the drug is off patent, but it will also have to contend with more people in the decision making process when it comes to which version of Atorvastatin to prescribe. I think that if the drug were OTC, Pfizer just might keep a larger fraction of its current market share if it were to compete more directly on the brand name. Truthfully, I don't expect to see Atorvastatin to go OTC and I don't think Pfizer would push to make it happen. It’s just an interesting idea to ponder
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