Stop the madness: drop rates and close all markets |
News - Hugh's Views | |||
Written by Hugh McManus | |||
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I hope the selloff I am now watching in Asian markets reverses itself by the time I wake, What's happening this morning in the Japanese market is just crazy: the Nikkei is off over 8%. It's just not rational. I suspect what is happening round the world is related to that very permissive term "deleveraging." Since it's tied to the liquidity crunch, I suspect we could continue to see more sellers than buyers, with a concomitant drop in prices, for the next few days. It truly is once-in-a-lifetime event. If markets are acting irrationally, feeding on the irrational expectations of participants, I'd call a time out. It works for kids in the playground; it works for nations contemplating war. Heck, it even works for hockey players, so what more evidence do you need! I think it's time to follow the example of the Russians (a move I criticized at the time) and have a concerted effort by Japan, the EU markets and the US and close all markets and exchanges on Thursday and Friday. A timeout.Personally, lack of information is something I loathe and closing markets removes the major source of information. I thought the ban on short selling was silly--naked short selling is a different story. However, right now, there are perfectly good companies, solvent and a clear going concern, caught in a down draft. I don't think that the markets right now are helping to determine value; I think that they're complicit in the behavior that's destroying value. It's time for a time out. It's also time for a concerted cut in interest rates. I know that inherent in that move is the risk of inflation; however, if the economy is truly slowing (and it is), the output is declining and the risk of inflation is mitigated. An interest rate cut just might help grease the wheels and get money flowing again. The other, drastic, choice is the nuclear option: allowing banks to lower their capital reserves for a few months, but given their propensity to hoard cash, I don't think even that normally failsafe option would work. I say that the economy is slowing based on personal observations. It's easier to get parking spots in malls; restaurants aren't as full as they once were; there are sales--the ultimate deflator. I am actually concerned for retailers. In this liquidity crunch, they're not going to be able to borrow to make down payments for the Holiday inventory. People are worried and humans don't always act rationally when they're fearful. As an investor, it's frankly the thing I like about people. I don't think that there's a single investment scheme out there that really works: dogs of the Dow, etc. However, I know that human nature is immutable. People will get overly exuberant in good times and drive prices up and get overly depressed and drive them into the ground when things turn sour: doing the opposite is the way to profit. Today it's more than just some old cycle. I am beginning to think it's time to protect people from themselves. The kind of behavior that I was surprised was absent three weeks ago is now blooming. I think markets should be closed on Thursday and Friday and the economic leaders of the G-7 should take the four days to devise some kind of a plan--or at least take the time to learn and understand exactly what's happening--and try to put it into effect next week. (By the way, that plan is to simply obliterate the credit default swap market: until those things are understood, then extricated from the financial system, the bad news will continue.) Just my two cents!
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